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3、page 9.Accor/IHGQ3 Preview:Sun didnt shine thissummerWe are cautious on ST RevPAR outlook for both Accor and IHGand see small downside risks to FY cons.post Q3.Investorsare likely cautious on near-term perf.for AC butaddlcashreturn and Essendi stake sale could be taken positively in ST.Q3 not a key

4、catalyst for IHG but growth algo intact.ACCOR(OW,PT 51)*Q3 Preview(23rd Oct)-We are cautious on RevPAR performance andsee small downside risks to FY consRevPAR post Q3 print,albeitFrench political andmacro headlines along with potential Essendi stake sale and cash returns are far moresignificant as

5、a driver of the share price in short-term.We expect Q3 RevPAR of c1%in linewith our tracker,and weexpect for management to continue to talk to the med-term 3-4%FYRevPAR guide/9-12%EBITDA growth guide as sensible for 2026 also.We also expectmanagement to expressconfidence in FY NUG 3.5%(in line with

6、prior guidance andconsensus).That said,we see small downside risks to FY cons.RevPAR of+3.3%as thisimplies c3%RevPAR needed in Q4 to hit cons,albeit management may likely provide some steeron cost-saving opportunities,previously suggested at H1,which may temporarily alleviate someconcerns about FY E