1、FLANNERY C.DOLAN,SUSAN A.RESETAR,ANUJIN NERGUI,ROBERT J.LEMPERT,JAMES SYMESocioeconomic Tipping Points in the Energy TransitionExpanding Climate Transition Risk Scenarios for Financial Stress TestingThe energy transition,by which the energy system is restructured to rely predominantly on carbon-free

2、 or carbon-limited power generation sources,is gaining momentum in several regions across the globe while stalling or even reversing in others.Despite uneven and diverse approaches to managing the energy transition,many countries share similar con-cerns about the possible social and economic impacts

3、 that may accompany an energy transition(i.e.,the transition risk).1 These widespread concerns have prompted model developers to construct scenarios that can be used by financial institutions,academics,and private firms around the world to assess transition risk.2 For example,in 2020,the Network for

4、 Greening the Financial System(NGFS)a collective of more than 100 banks and other financial institutionsreleased a set of six long-term scenarios that explore various combinations of high and low physical and transition risks caused by climate change(NGFS,undated).The scenarios provide consistent so

5、cioeconomic assumptions through 2100 at the global scale and have been updated numerous times between 2020 and 2025.On May 7,2025,the NGFS released technical documentation and output variables of short-term scenarios that increase the geographic,sectoral,and temporal resolution of the long-term scen

6、arios over a forecast horizon of five years.3 These short-term scenarios were motivated by the need to produce more stressing climate risk scenarios for financial institutions and better represent the interactions between climate risks and business cycles.To do this,the NGFS authors used a combinati