1、EQUITY:INTERNET&NEW MEDIAJ&T Express 1519.HK 1519 HKGlobal Markets Research1 September 2025Positive tone on business in SEA and New marketsMaintain Buy rating with a higher TP of HKD12.51H25 results missed mainly due to weaker performance in China J&T Expresss(J&T)1H25 total revenue rose 13%y-y to U

2、SD5.5bn,missing the Bloomberg consensus estimate and our forecast by 5%.We attribute the shortfall mainly to the lower average revenue per parcel(ARPP)in the China and SEA(Southeast Asia)markets.Adjusted EBITDA increased 24%to USD436mn,falling behind Street/our estimates by 10%/11%,mainly due to sof

3、ter earnings in the China market led by intensified competition in 1H25.Thus,J&Ts adjusted net profit reached USD154mn,up 157%y-y,while 13%/22%below Street/our estimates.Positive outlook for SEA and New markets;low visibility on Chinas earnings In the SEA market,J&T shared the benefits of cost optim

4、ization with ecommerce players through lowering ARPP,gaining market share and enjoying resilient profitability.In 1H25,J&Ts parcel volumes rose 58%y-y,which lifted its market share to 32.8%,up 5.4pp y-y and strengthening its leadership position.Meanwhile,adjusted EBIT surged 74%y-y to USD235mn,with

5、unit EBIT rising 10%to USD0.07.For 2H25E,J&T expects the strong parcel volume growth momentum to continue,driven by solid growth from its e-commerce partners,notably TikTok shop(owned by Bytedance)and proactive expansion of non-platform parcels.We now estimate 54%parcel volume growth in 2H25F,contri

6、buting to adjusted EBIT of USD285mn with a largely h-h flat unit EBIT.In New markets(Latin America,Middle East,and Africa),J&Ts parcel volume increased 22%in 1H25,largely in line with overall market growth,while,given that J&T started collaborating with Mercado Libre(MELI US,Not rated)in Brazil sinc