【中信期货】欧洲柴油裂解价差展望-250926（22页）.pdf

1、重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2025-09-26 European Gasoil Crack Spread Outlook 欧洲柴油裂解价差展望欧洲柴油裂解价差展望 Abstract 摘要摘要 In Q4 2025,the European gasoil crack spread may have downside support and upside potential.On the supply side,operating rates of European refineries might drop slightly in Q4.The EU tightened energy sanc

4、tions against Russia,which may restrict import growth.Meanwhile,refineries in India and the Middle East prioritize domestic demand in Asia,leading to insufficient supply flexibility.On the demand side,the EUs meteorological agency predicts that Q4 temperature will be 1-2 lower than previous years av

5、erage,driving up heating demand.As of Sep,2025,ARA diesel inventories were at a five-year low level for the same period,making the market more sensitive to supply disruptions.After the peak demand season ends and ARA inventories are gradually replenished,the cracking spread may decline,but the downs

6、ide space will be limited by low inventories and constraints on domestic refining capacity.Risks:Unexpected geopolitical escalation,larger-than-expected European refinery maintenance,and global recession.2025 年第四季度，欧洲柴油裂解价差预计下方有支撑，且上方弹性较大。供应端，欧洲炼厂 Q4开工率或将小幅降至 81%。欧盟收紧对俄能源制裁，或限制进口增量，而印度、中东炼厂需优先满足亚洲本土