1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:18/09/2025 02:39:14 GMTDistributed on:18/09/2025 02:39:14 GMT18 September 2025Deutsche BankResearch Asia Economics Asia Macro Insight Date As the effects of front-loading reverse and higher tariff effects emerge,Asias export growth hinges precariously o

2、n the sustained AI boom,while trade flows are being reshaped.Although the market is peppered with warnings of a correction,the US-China tech race continues in fact,others are increasingly turning to AI as a growth enhancer,making related investments.This leaves either a supply shock or AI tech disru

3、ptors as a potential catalyst.The AI race has called for greater government involvement given related infrastructure needs,including power investments.This contributes to a shift in gear towards fiscal stimulus,with Asia at the late stage of its easing cycle,although more aggressive rate cuts by the

4、 Fed will provide greater maneuvering room.Overview.1China.4Hong Kong.9India.11Indonesia.15Malaysia.18Philippines.19Singapore.20South Korea.22Taiwan.24Thailand.26Vietnam.28DB Macro Forecasts.30Growth&Inflation Heatmap.32EM Asia Macro Charts.33EM Asia Monetary Policy Monitor.35Juliana LeeChief Econom

5、ist+65-6423-5203Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909Yi Xiong,Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139Junjie HuangEconomist+65-6423-6699Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166Deutsche Bank AG/SingaporeIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMP

6、LETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED,PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.The AI-Fiscal Tightrope18 September 2025Asia Macro InsightPage 2Deutsche Bank AG/SingaporeWhether Asia will see a soft patch in export growth or suffer a deeper plunge will depend on the durability of the A