瑞银UBS:美国汽车行业研究:电动汽车负面情绪见顶 整车厂反馈优于供应商-250904(英文版)(26页).pdf

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瑞银UBS:美国汽车行业研究:电动汽车负面情绪见顶 整车厂反馈优于供应商-250904(英文版)(26页).pdf

1、ab7 September 2025Global ResearchRoad&SpakPeak EV negativity;OEMs supplier feedback Are we at peak EV negativity?Probably.GM reported record monthly EV sales in August and said they expect the strength to continue in September,then effectively called for a collapse in 4Q25 into 2026 as the consumer

2、EV credits expire.A day later,GM announced they will stop production of the Cadillac Lyriq and Vistiq EVs for a week in October,a week in November and December.They also plan to cut back production of the those vehicles during the first 5 months of 2026.Additionally,they plan to indefinitely delay t

3、he start of a second shift of the new Chevy Bolt which starts production later this year.Client reaction to this news was smart move.We dont disagree dont build if demand isnt there.In more news,Teslas Master Plan Part IV effectively has the company moving away from EVs to AI(which says a lot to us

4、about the future profitability of the EV market),Rivian let go 1.5%of their workforce and VW is slowing US EV production and furloughing workers.Meanwhile,a Cox Automotive dealer survey found dealers were the most negative theyve ever been on the EV market.The cavalcade of negative EV headlines/data

5、points means expectations likely cant get much lower.Is there any(near-term)hope for more positivity around EVs?GM indicated they expect marginal competitors to scale back which should lead to a more rational pricing environment.This sounds like a small silver lining to us as the associated lower vo

6、lumes means less absorption and likely a greater need to take cost out.Mid-to-long term of course,the legacy OEMs do need to invest in EV for long-term competitiveness.The OEMs have a chance to invest more thoughtfully,and more aligned timing wise with when EV demand may re-inflect.But given investo

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