汇丰:中国数据中心行业研究:1H26增长已定价 关注2H25大订单获取-250822(英文版)(18页).pdf

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汇丰:中国数据中心行业研究:1H26增长已定价 关注2H25大订单获取-250822(英文版)(18页).pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ Find o

2、ut moreHSBC12th Annual China ConferenceShenzhen|1-2 September 2025 2Q25 results show utilisation ramp up unaffected by chip availability;current valuation has priced in growth until 1H26 Next catalyst is bidding outcome for large orders in 2H25,securing growth after 2H26/2027;we prefer VNET over GDS

3、 Maintain Buy on VNET and GDS;raise GDS TP to USD44.10(from USD42.80),VNET TP unchanged at USD11.40 GDS and VNET reported a slight beat in their respective 2Q25 results;utilisation ramp-up was unaffected by chip uncertainties.We believe fast utilisation growth until 1H26,driven by current orders on

4、hand,is mostly priced in,and the next re-rating catalyst is large-order win in 2H25 bidding,which would support growth from 2H26.Continue to prefer VNET over GDS given:1)VNET offers pure exposure to China AI computing growth with less demanding valuation(2026e EV/EBITDA VNET:9.0 x versus GDS:13.7x),

5、and 2)expectation on new order win in 2H being a catalyst.VNET September new order could be the next catalyst:VNETs share price performance remain muted after earnings due to weaker-than-expected guidance on 1H26 capacity delivery of only 99MW(versus 1H25a:188MW and 2H25e:227MW)and lack of new large

6、 orders.We believe there is upside risk to 1H26 and 2H26 capacity delivery,given potential order wins from bidding in 2H25.We think there is a high chance that VNET wins these orders,implying upside risk for 2026e capacity target.We believe most bidding competitors are regional players,and VNET has

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