1、De Minimis Industry ModelBarclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should

2、consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 3.U.S.InternetDe Minimis Unpacked-SizingTemu and SheinOur detailed de minimis industry model suggests Temu andShein were 41%of total de minimi

3、s GMV and 37%of volumein 2024E,even as Temu has shifted a material portion offulfillment to US facilities.The following companies are privately held and are not under coverage by BarclaysResearch:Shein.Information about these companies is being provided for information purposesonly and is not an inv

4、estment recommendation by Barclays Research.The Key Takeaway:Weve built a detailed de minimisindustry model,unpacking annual GMV,AOVs andshipment volumes across the six largest countries with USinbound de minimis volumes-China,Canada,the UnitedKingdom,Hong Kong,Mexico and Germany.Our prior estimates

5、 had overstated de minimisshare of US e-comm:we think the$65bn of de minimis GMV in 2024E was mid-single-digitshare of US e-commerce,or roughly 12%of e-commerce shipment volumes(although this maybe understated,as we explain in greater detail below).These six countries,which comprise anestimated 81%o

6、f overall de minimis volumes,are in focus in light of prior tariff and de minimissuspension actions already enacted under the Trump Administration(Canada and Mexicohaving been postponed for 30 days)and potential Reciprocal Tariffs impacting Europeancountries.It appears to us that not only is the Tru