1、消费发力支撑经济增长，投资信心仍待加强摘要消费发力支撑经济增长，投资信心仍待加强摘要2025 年二季度，国际形势风云变幻，经济增长压力不小。美国高压关税政策下，大湾区企业市场空间和经济效益受到影响，生产有所放缓。政策发力提升国内消费以应对外部风险的效果明显，以旧换新、出口转内销和假日消费合力拉动下大湾区社消加速增长，成为支撑经济增长的重要因素。外贸出口增速较年初略有回升但仍处低位，中美经贸谈判有序进行背景下出口形势有望改善。消费的增长和外贸环境的改善并未明显提升企业扩大再生产的信心，企业投资仍呈现加速下滑的现象。综合来看，预计二季度大湾区 GDP 增长 4.3%。展望三季度，本文认为，大湾区经

2、济仍将温和增长，呈现消费强外贸稳投资弱的局面。具体而言：（1）以旧换新政策和暑期效应仍支撑消费增长，需留意国补执行进度和以价换量的可持续性；（2）外贸形势短期内稳定，需关注欧日效仿美国取消小额包裹免税以及美国强化原产地规则的冲击；（3）积极的财政政策下基建投资增长趋势不变，工业投资预计仍将低迷。_北大汇丰智库经济组、前海中英研究院（撰稿人：王若林、喻奇）成稿时间：2025 年 7 月 10 日|总第 140 期|2025-2026 学年第 2 期联系人：程云（0755-26032270，）Consumption grows while investment declinesAbstractIn

3、 Q2 2025,drastic changes of the international situation put much pressure oneconomic growth of the Greater Bay Area(GBA).The high universal and reciprocaltariff policy of the US obviously affected the business operation of GBA enterprises,manifested as low growth of production and negative profits.T

4、o reduce the impact ofexternal risks,Government has stepped up efforts on promoting domestic consumption.Policies such as giving subsidies or discounts for buying specific products,togetherwith the holiday travel demands accelerated the growth of consumption to 3.7%in GBA.Exports growth rate was hig

5、her than that in the beginning of the year 2025,the progressof the negotiations between China and US is likely to promote the recovery of export inGBA.However,GBA enterprises confidence in investment was still insufficient,with adeclination of 8.9%.According to our prediction,the GDP growth rate of

6、GBA is likelyto be 4.3%in Q2 2025.Looking ahead to Q3 2025,we believe that the GBA economy will continue togrow moderately,with the features of strong consumption,stable foreign trade andweak domestic investment.Specifically:(1)The subsidy policy and the coming summervacation still support the growt