【中信期货】新能源电价政策对光伏和储能需求影响-250318（15页）.pdf

1、重要提示：本报告非重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2022025 5-0 03 3-1 18 8 Impact of New Energy Pricing Policies on PV and ESS Demand 新能源电价政策对光伏和储能需求影响新能源电价政策对光伏和储能需求影响 摘要摘要 Abstract On February 9,2025,NDRC and NEA jointly issued the Notice on Further Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy Feed-in Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Developm

4、ent of New Energy(NDRC No.136).Before the new regulations take effect on June 1,it is expected to drive polysilicon demand and the demand for materials such as copper,aluminum,and glass will also be boosted.However,the installed capacity in the second half of the year will face significant downside

5、risks.Risks:Policy changes,significant volatility in fuel costs,and economic growth.2025 年 2 月 9 日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革 促进新能源高质量发展的通知（发改价格2025136 号）。6 月 1 日新规落地前或出现新能源项目的抢装行为，进而带动多晶硅需求，亦会提振铜、铝、玻璃等材料需求，但下半年装机量将面临显著下行风险。风险因素：风险因素：政策变化、燃料成本大幅波动、经济增长 张默涵 Zhang Mohan 从业资格号 Qualification No：F

6、03097187 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0020317 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https:/ CITIC Futures International Research 中信期货国际化研究 2 目录目录 Content 1.Rush Installation of New Energy Projects .3 3 新能源项目抢装新能源项目抢装 .3 3 1