【研报】房地产行业：以香港经验看疫情对物管行业的短期冲击和长期变化-20200220[30页].pdf

1、 / SARS SARS 2020 EPS PE 2018A 2019E 2020E 2018A 2019E 2020E 28.53 0.37 0.58 0.82 77.26 49.19 34.79 60.75 0.61 1.04 1.35 100.02 58.51 45.10 7.45 0.07 0.14 0.21 106.46 53.23 35.49 26.09 0.81 0.26 0.64 32.29 100.55 40.82 -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 2019/2 2019/3 2019/4 2019/5 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 2019/10

2、 2019/11 2019/12 2020/1 % 1M 3M 12M -6.81% 4.01% 4.85% -4.95% -1.15% -17.27% 134 22199 19729 9.72 1.85 21180 2029 % 79.86 2020-02-16 : 2020-02-02 20191-11 2019-12-17 S0550519080009 13917726696 S0550118070032 18616639299 S0550119080063 18117166023 2020-02-20 2 / 30 1. . 5 1.1.5 1.2.7 1.3. 11 1.4. 11

3、1.5. 11 2. . 12 2.1.12 2.2.14 2.3.14 2.4.16 2.5.19 2.6.20 2.7.22 3.2020. 22 3.1.22 3.2.6098.HK .25 3.3.6049.HK .26 3.4.1995.HK .27 3.5.001914.SZ .28 3 / 30 1. 6 2 . 7 3. 7 4 . 10 5 . 10 6 .11 7 .11 8 .11 9 .11 10. 13 11 . 13 12&. 13 13“” . 13 14“” . 14 15. 14 16top10 . 14 17. 15 18 . 16 19 . 16 20.

4、16 21 . 16 22SARS . 17 23 . 17 24 . 18 25 . 18 26. 19 27ROE . 20 28 . 20 29. 21 30 . 21 31 . 21 32 . 21 33. 22 34PE-TTM . 23 352020. 23 362020 . 23 372020 . 23 38. 26 39 . 26 40 . 28 41. 28 4 / 30 1 . 6 2 . 7 3 . 8 4 . 8 5. 9 6218 . 10 7 . 12 8 . 15 9 . 18 10WM.N . 20 11 . 25 12 . 26 13 . 27 14 . 28

5、 5 / 30 1. 1.1. 2 1 20192.98 17%2 6 / 30 1 1 124-225 35-40 125-22 125-331 125-29 21-229 125-213 13 7 / 30 2 3 1.2. 2% 2 2016 2017 2018 2019H1 1156.84 54.2% 1571.32 59.1% 1879.71 55.6% 1194.66 55.4% 509.38 23.9% 605.70 22.7% 818.32 24.3% 519.12 24.1% 199.37 9.3% 241.65 9.1% 315.77 9.3% 169.71 7.9% 38

6、.84 1.8% 53.48 2.0% 74.01 2.2% 149.48 6.9% 11.42 0.5% 12.19 0.5% 20.43 0.6% 12.82 0.6% 63.71 3.0% 16.40 0.6% 20.72 0.6% 14.01 0.7% 156.18 7.3% 158.82 6.0% 249.15 7.4% 95.71 4.4% 2135.72 100.0% 2659.54 100.0% 3378.10 100.0% 2155.50 100.0% 8 / 30 3 2016 2017 2018 2019H1 41037.57 86.0% 52445.39 87.0% 6