【招银国际】China Economy: Mixed data exhibited unbalanced performance-250617（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 17 Jun 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy c Mixed data exhibited unbalanced performance China economy showed unb

2、alanced growth as retail sales notably came in above market expectations supported by durable goods under the trade-in scheme,while property market lost the recovery momentum and industrial output slowed down broadly.The economy is likely to experience further headwinds as exports weaken and the eff

3、ect of trade-in scheme for durables diminishes.We expect the GDP growth to slow from 5.4%in 1Q25 to 4.9%in 2Q25 and 4.7%in 2H25.If China could reach a trade deal with the US,it might focus on economy rebalancing with stronger fiscal expansion,additional consumption stimulus and faster overcapacity r

4、eduction.Property sales continued to deteriorate,prompting further policy easing.The decline of gross floor area(GFA)sold for commodity buildings edged down to-2.9%in 5M25 from-2.8%in 4M25 according to NBS,while residence GFA further dropped to-2.6%from-2.1%.Housing starts slumped by-22.8%in 5M25 to

5、 232mn sqm,back to the level in 2004.The steep decline in housing starts is set to curb future supply in 2-3 years,expediting the structural rebalancing of Chinas property market,in our view.For new housing sales,according to market data,YoY sales in 30 major cities dropped 5.9%in the first half of

6、June compared to 0%in May.Tier-2 cities recovered to-12.6%in the first half of June from-17.6%in May,while tier-1 and-3 cities moderated to 1.9%and-2.4%from 18.2%and 15.9%.Second-hand housing sales continued to weaken,as 11 selective cities saw a YoY drop of 5.2%in the first half of June from 6.8%in