【招银国际】China Economy: Rerouting and front-loading mask tariff impact-250512（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 12 May 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Rerouting and front-loading mask tariff impact Chinas exports demonst

2、rated unexpected resilience in Apr despite the shock from reciprocal tariffs.While exports to the US notably slumped,robust growth to ASEAN largely offset the loss,underscoring the regions growing role as the key destination for re-routed exports.Imports also came in well above market expectation,as

3、 import volume of industrial raw materials and integrated circuits surged,possibly driven by the undisclosed tariff exemption on chips from the US.We expect the worst of foreign trade has yet to come,as bookings for shipping containers from China to the US,and export order index in PMI both sharply

4、declined.China and the US have initiated negotiations with optimistic tone.We believe the reduction of headline tariff rate from 145%to 80%is achievable,but further reductions to 30-40%which we consider as long-term terminal rate is likely to take considerably longer.Looking forward,we expect Chinas

5、 export growth to decelerate from 5.9%in 2024 to 1%in 2025,while import growth may mildly slow from 1.1%to 0.5%.We expect the USD/RMB rate to reach 7.25 at end-2025 from 7.35 at end-2024.Exports to the US declined notably,while rising shipments to ASEAN largely offset the loss.Exports slowed down to

6、 8.1%(all on a YoY basis unless specified)in Apr from 12.4%in Mar,notably beating market expectation of 0.8%.Exports to the US slumped 21%in Apr amid escalating reciprocal tariffs,while shipments to ASEAN notably surged 20.8%,reflecting the regions growing role as the key destination for re-routed e