【招银国际】China Economy:Resilient data means no strong stimulus in near term-250520（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 20 May 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Resilient data means no strong stimulus in near term Economic activity

2、 broadly moderated in Apr but remained robust amid the tariff shocks.Retail sales slowed but maintained resilient growth supported by durable goods under the trade-in scheme.Industrial output and fixed asset investment growth rates moderately softened and yet stood above the 2024 level.The de-escala

3、tion of China-US trade war restored market sentiment but also tempered the pace of policy easing.We revise our projection of Chinas GDP in 2Q25 to 4.8%from 4.5%,with the 2H25 and full-year growth at 4.7%and 4.9%.China economy may face further headwinds in 3Q25 due to the softening property market,pa

4、yback effect of export frontloading and the fading impact of trade-in program.Strong policy stimulus might be delayed to 4Q25 as the sense of urgency has diminished and measures to boost consumption and reduce overcapacity could serve as key bargaining chips for China in China-US negotiations.Proper

5、ty market is likely to weaken due to the confidence shock.The gross floor area(GFA)sold for commodity housing dropped 2.8%in 4M25 after declining 3%in 3M25.Housing starts remained muted at-23.8%in 4M25.New housing sales in 30 major cities dropped 3.3%in the first half of May after decreasing 11.7%in

6、 Apr.Second-hand housing sales as a leading indicator weakened as the recovery rate compared to 2019 in 11 selective cities dropped to 77.5%in the first half of May from 100.8%in Apr,with YoY growth dipping to-5.6%from 14.2%.Second-hand housing prices declined across all city tiers in Apr.The proper