【招银国际】China Economy:Front-loading effect supports exports with uncertainties ahead-250415（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 15 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Market Strategy China Economy Front-loading effect supports exports with uncertainties ahead China posted

2、 another record-high trade surplus exceeding US$100bn in Mar,as exports rebounded markedly across trading partners driven by the frontloading effect in anticipation of higher tariffs in the future.Imports moderately recovered from its early-year trough,yet remained subdued due to soft domestic deman

3、d.Trumps aggressive tariffs might slow Chinas economic growth by over 0.5ppts by reducing exports,hurting business investment and undermining consumer confidence.China would enhance trade and investment ties with non-US economies and reorient its growth model toward a more consumption-driven structu

4、re.China might launch additional fiscal stimulus measures especially those targeting consumption,including expanding consumer trade-in schemes,providing child-birth subsidies,and strengthening social benefit net.The PBOC might cut RRR and LPRs moderately in 2Q25 to boost stock and housing markets.Lo

5、oking forward,we expect Chinas export growth to decelerate from 5.9%in 2024 to 3.3%in 2025,while import growth may mildly rise from 1.1%to 2.2%.We expect the USD/RMB rate to reach 7.40 at end-2025 from 7.35 at end-2024.Exports accelerated markedly across major trading partners.Exports rebounded to 1

6、2.4%(all on a YoY basis unless specified)in Mar after rising 2.3%in 2M25,notably beating market expectation of 3.5%.Exports to the US escalated from 2.3%in 2M25 to 9.1%in Mar,even though 20%tariff rate had been implemented.Exports to other major trading partners,including ASEAN and the EU,also picke