【招银国际】China Economy：Credit recovery faces tariff shock-250414（7页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 14 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Credit recovery faces tariff shock Credit growth continued to show ten

2、tative signs of stabilisation in Mar as RMB loans to real economy picked up as an additional driver of social financing growth,alongside government bond issuance.Loans to households improved as housing sales and mortgage demand moderately recovered.Loans to corporates picked up as ST loans to corpor

3、ates surged.However,the credit recovery is facing the trade war shock,which could cool down Chinas foreign trade activity and undermine manufacturing investment.China has to further loosen its policies to defy the trade war shock.The PBOC may cut RRR and LPRs in 2Q25 by 50bps and 20bps respectively.

4、Outstanding social financing and loans may pick up 8.2%and 7.7%at end-2025 after rising 8%and 7.6%at end-2024.China might launch additional fiscal stimulus measures especially those targeting consumption,including expanding consumer trade-in scheme,providing child-birth subsidy and strengthening soc

5、ial benefit net.Social financing flow climbed up driven by government bonds,and RMB loans picked up for the first time in 18 months.The growth of outstanding social financing(SF)edged up to 8.4%in Mar(all in YoY terms unless otherwise specified)from 8.2%in Feb,as the SF flow expanded from 16.6%growt

6、h in 2M25 to 21.8%to RMB5.9trn,coming above market expectation at RMB4.7trn.Government bond extended its rapid growth to 220.5%in Mar at RMB1.5trn,thanks to fiscal expansion.RMB loans to the real economy under SF grew 16.3%to RMB2.8trn in March,the first notable YoY growth since October 2023,indicat