【招银国际】China Economy: PMI signalled early signs of tariff disruptions-250502（5页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 2 May 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy PMI signalled early signs of tariff disruptions Chinas manufacturing P

2、MI came in notably below market expectation,reflecting early signs of tariff disruptions with both export and import index slumped to three-year low.Both new order and production index dropped into contraction,while deflation pressure intensified as raw material purchase price and ex-factory price i

3、ndex both dipped further.Employment deteriorated to 14-month low,while corporates procurement saw its biggest decline since Apr 2022.Tariff shocks have weighed on economic momentum,as the manufacturing PMI broadly deteriorated and the property market notably softened in Apr,especially in the new hou

4、sing market.We estimate that the trade war could reduce Chinas GDP and CPI by 1 and 0.2-0.4 percentage points over the next 12 months.GDP growth might slow from 5.4%in 1Q25 to 4.5%in 2Q25.PBOC may cut RRR and LPRs slightly in 2Q25,with a total reduction of 50bps and 20bps in the full year.Government

5、 bond issuance and fiscal spending may be accelerated to provide more support to the real economy.However,additional strong fiscal support and consumption stimulus are unlikely to materialize before 2H25,as China might consider them as bargaining chips in negotiating with the US.With such policy sup

6、port in place,GDP growth might rebound to 4.7%in 2H25 with the full-year growth at 4.8%.Manufacturing PMI broadly deteriorated amid tariff shocks.Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49%in Apr from 50.5%in Mar,below market expectations at 49.7%.Apr PMI data reflected early signs of tariff disruptions,with b