【招银国际】China Economy: PMI shows continued recovery momentum-250401（5页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 1 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy PMI shows continued recovery momentum Manufacturing PMI in Mar maintain

2、ed its recovery momentum as both new orders and production robustly expanded.However,the deflation pressure lingered as both raw material purchase and ex-factory price indexes further contracted.Corporates were reluctant to expand capex and inventory investment,as both inventory of raw materials and

3、 finished goods were subdued.Service PMI edged up with improving demand while construction PMI further expanded,although both were weak compared to historical seasonal patterns.Thanks to the improving housing market,strong durables sales as well as the broadening trade surplus,GDP in 1Q25 may have r

4、eached 5.2%on our estimates.However,China could face intensifying external headwinds in April and May,as Trumps reciprocal tariffs and extreme pressure tactics could dampen global trade activity,business investment and market confidence.China may consider additional stimulus policies to boost domest

5、ic consumption in June or July.The PBOC may cut RRR soon in 2Q25 by 50bps and then cut policy rates by 20bps in 2H25.Manufacturing PMI recovered as both new orders and production robustly expanded.Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5%in Mar from 50.2%in Feb,almost in line with market expectation of 50

6、.4%.Demand continued its recovery trend since last Sep,with new order index rising to 51.8%in Mar,the peak in 12 months,from 51.1%,while production index edged up to 52.6%from 52.5%.However,deflation pressure lingered as raw material purchase price dropped to contraction and ex-factory price index c