【招银国际】China Economy: A mild rebound in credit growth-250317（7页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 17 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy A mild rebound in credit growth Overall credit growth showed tentative

2、 signs of stabilisation as outstanding social financing growth climbed thanks to strong government bond issuance.However,renminbi loans continued to slow down,especially household loans as the new housing market and consumer demand remained weak.Recent policy signals of continued support to the stoc

3、k market,housing market and household consumption might bolster economic activity and credit demand in the next several months.In addition,the PBOC may cut RRR by 50bps soon in 2Q25 and LPRs by 20bps in 2H25.Outstanding social financing and loans may pick up 8.2%and 7.7%at end-2025 after rising 8%an

4、d 7.6%at end-2024.Growth of social financing flow accelerated thanks to government bond issuance.The growth of outstanding social financing(SF)edged up to 8.2%in Feb(all in YoY terms unless otherwise specified)from 8%in Jan,as the SF flow expanded from 9%growth to RMB7.1trn in Jan to 49.3%to RMB2.2t

5、rn,although missing market expectation at RMB2.65trn.Government bond issuance extended its rapid growth to 182%in Feb at RMB1.7trn,thanks to the fiscal expansion as broad deficit is expected to widen by RMB2.4trn in 2025.Corporate bond issuance also increased 19.6%to RMB170bn in Feb,as business cred

6、it demand gradually bottomed out.New RMB loans to the real economy fell back into negative territory,declining by 33.4%YoY to RMB650bn,after recording the first positive YoY growth in 15 months in January.Excluding CNY distortions,SF flow increased by 16.6%in 2M25,driven by a 167%surge in government