【招银国际】China Economy: PMI returns to expansion amid ongoing economic recovery-250303（5页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 3 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Market Strategy China Economy PMI returns to expansion amid ongoing economic recovery Feb manufacturing PMI

2、 bounced back to expansion partly due to distortions from the Chinese New Year,as it reflects sequential changes.Demand and production continued their recovery trend since the stimulus in last Sep while deflation pressure in final products persisted.Service PMI moderated as holiday-related activitie

3、s retreated while construction PMI notably surged thanks to the work resumption after the CNY.The recent rebound in manufacturing PMI has been driven by the trade-in scheme and the front-loading effect in exports.The recovery might last in the first three quarters and slow down again in 4Q25 due to

4、possible rising tariffs and the diminishing marginal impact of the stimulus.For the NPC this week,we dont anticipate any major surprises,with GDP,CPI and unemployment rate likely to be set at 5%,2%and 5.5%for 2025.We expect the fiscal policy would be more proactive,and general fiscal deficit,ultra-l

5、ong central government special bonds and local government special bonds may increase to 4%,1.3%and 3.1%of GDP in 2025.Manufacturing PMI rebounded following the Chinese New Year.Manufacturing PMI bounced up to 50.2%in Feb from 49.1%in Jan,slightly above market expectations at 49.9%.Demand continued i

6、ts recovery trend since last Sep,rising to 51.1%in Feb from 49.2%,while production index remained robust.Other indexes also rebounded due to CNY distortions as PMI showed sequential changes.Deflation pressure persisted as ex-factory price index remained in contraction.Breaking down by sector,smeltin