【招银国际】China Economy: Solid growth to meet incoming headwinds-250417（8页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 17 Apr 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Solid growth to meet incoming headwinds China saw another season of s

2、tronger-than-expected GDP growth,although the further contracting GDP deflator indicated that the deflation risk was still entrenched.Activity data all came in notably above market expectation,as retail sales further rallied driven by durable goods under trade-in scheme and industrial output robustl

3、y expanded thanks to the export front-loading.Fixed asset investment edged up due to the rising infrastructure investment.However,the property market has shown signs of softening as growth of new and second-hand housing sales both declined in early Apr.The tariff war may exert additional pressure on

4、 growth and deflation through multiple channels,including declining exports,weaker business investment and deteriorating consumer confidence,as we expect it may lead to 0.75-1.25 ppts decline in GDP.The policymakers might respond by further loosening monetary policy and implementing additional fisca

5、l stimulus,which would partially offset the negative impact of the trade war.We expect Chinas GDP growth to decelerate from 5.4%in 1Q25 to 4.2%in 2Q25 and 4.6%in 2H25 with the full-year growth at 4.7%.The PBOC may cut RRR by 50bps and LPRs by 20bps soon in 2Q25.China might launch additional fiscal s

6、timulus measures especially those targeting consumption in 2H25,including expanding consumer trade-in schemes,providing national child-birth subsidies,and strengthening social benefit net.1Q GDP growth beat expectation but GDP deflator was still negative.Chinas GDP growth in YoY terms(all on a YoY b