【招银国际】China Economy:2025 NPC preview-250228（6页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 28 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy 2025 NPC preview The economic targets and policy stance to be announce

2、d at the forthcoming NPC meeting are well anticipated by the market as they were already discussed at the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference(CEWC)last December.In our view,the fiscal policy will be more proactive with broad fiscal deficit likely to rise from 8.1%of GDP in 202

3、4 to 9.8%of GDP in 2025.Monetary policy will be moderately easing with possible additional RRR and LPR cuts in 2H25.Sector policies will continue to focus on accelerating tech innovation,boosting consumption and stabilising the property market.Policies may remain stable in 1H25 as economic activity

4、improves and the worst of the Trump 2.0 shock is yet to come.However,policymakers may be under pressure to ease policy further in 2H25,especially in the last quarter,as Trump could escalate the trade war and the stimulus effects of domestic policies could diminish.Economic targets well anticipated b

5、y the market.Premier Li Qiang will make a cabinet work report at the NPC meeting,disclosing economic targets and policy stance for this year.The GDP growth target is expected to remain at 5%for 2025,aligned with the weighted average growth target of 5.3%across provincial NPCs.This would signal a str

6、ong pro-growth commitment from policymakers,particularly as China faces increasing headwinds from the Trump 2.0 shock.Meanwhile,the CPI growth target may be revised down to 2%for 2025 from 3%in 2024,in line with the targets of 24 out of 25 provinces.The inflation target appears to serve more as an u