【招银国际】China Economy: Exports surged amid possible tariff hikes-250114（7页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 14 Jan 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Exports surged amid possible tariff hikes Merchandise exports in Dec c

2、onsiderably picked up driven by exports to the US ahead possible tariff hikes,while exports to Global South also notably strengthened.Exports of products improved broadly but electronic products moderated noticeably.The fading momentum of tech and transportation products may weigh on export growth i

3、n 2025.Imports rebounded as copper-related products surged,thanks to the AI-related demand.Domestic demand remained weaker than overseas demand as export volume registered two-digit strong growth while import volume slightly declined in 2H24.Considering net exports may have contributed nearly 25%of

4、GDP growth in 2024,we expect the next wave of policy stimulus will be triggered by export deterioration possibly in 2H25,when Trump may announce the tariff hikes after the US inflation trends lower.Looking forward,we expect the export growth to decelerate from 5.9%in 2024 to 3.3%in 2025 while import

5、 growth may mildly rise from 1.1%in 2024 to 2.2%in 2025.We expect the USD/RMB rate to reach 7.5 at end-2025 from 7.35 at end-2024.Headline extended its rally as exports to the US accelerated ahead of possible tariff hikes.Exports rebounded to 10.7%(all on a YoY basis unless specified)in Dec after mo

6、derating to 6.7%in Nov,above market expectation of 7.1%.Exports to the US escalated from 8%to 15.6%driven by continued front-loading,boosting the headline growth by 2.2%.Exports to other major trading partners,including ASEAN and the EU,also grew from 14.9%and 7.2%to 18.9%and 8.8%.Exports to Latin A