【招银国际】China Economy: PMI indicated continued yet slowing recovery-250102（5页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 2 Jan 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy PMI indicated continued yet slowing recovery Manufacturing PMI edged do

2、wn but remained in expansion for 3 consecutive months.New order and production indexes were the major drivers while deflation pressure persisted as both material purchase price index and ex-factory price index continued to retreat.Service PMI surged as the recent stimulus mildly boosted consumer sen

3、timent.Heading into 2025,the property market and consumer demand might mildly improve amid continued policy stimulus,while exports and private business investment may face headwinds amid the Trump shock.Fiscal policy will be more expansionary with the broad fiscal deficit higher than we expected,whi

4、le monetary policy may be more accommodative with additional RRR and policy rate cuts.We expect Chinas GDP growth to slightly slow from 4.9%in 2024 to 4.7%in 2025.Manufacturing PMI moderated but stayed in expansion for 3 consecutive months.Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.1%in Dec from 50.3%in Nov

5、,in-line with market expectations.Demand continued to expand with new order index increasing to 51%from 50.8%,while production index remained robust at 52.1%.Businesses remained reluctant to increase inventory investment while the material purchase volume index continued to trend up thanks to the im

6、provement of both demand and output.New export order index extended its rally since Oct driven by front-loading orders amid tariff threats,while import index marginally narrowed its contraction.However,deflation pressure persisted as material purchase price and ex-factory price indexes dipped from 4