【招银国际】China Economy - In a moderate recovery-250120（9页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 20 Jan 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Equity Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy In a moderate recovery Chinas GDP met the 2024 growth target of 5%tha

2、nks to the latest policy stimulus and record-breaking trade surplus.Housing sales continued to recover especially in higher-tier cities.Retail sales rebounded driven by durable goods eligible for the trade-in subsidy policy like home appliance and furniture.Fixed asset investments moderated dragged

3、by contraction of property investments,as recovery in property sales has yet to translate into developers investment willingness restrained by their debt overhang and confidence weakness.Industrial output beat market expectation thanks to recovering durable consumption and robust exports.Despite the

4、 solid real GDP growth,Chinese stocks remained weak as investors were concerned about the recovery sustainability of housing market and durable consumption,continued deflation pressure as well as the trade war risk in Trump 2.0 era.We believe Chinas economy will maintain the recovery momentum in 1H2

5、5 as the recovery of housing sales should indicate a gradual improvement of consumer demand and Trumps most important agendas in the first 100 days should be lowering inflation and deporting illegal immigrants instead of raising tariffs.But the situation may change in 2H25 as the policy stimulus gra

6、dually diminish and Trump might escalate trade tensions after the US inflation further declines.We expect Chinas GDP growth to decelerate from 5%in 1H25 to 4.5%in 2H25 with the full-year growth at 4.7%.China might launch additional policy stimulus in 2H25.GDP met the 2024 growth target while GDP def