【招银国际】China Economy: Credit demand gradually improves-250217（7页）.pdf

1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 17 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy Credit demand gradually improves Credit demand recovered in Jan as gro

2、wth rates of social financing and new RMB loans beat market expectations.Government bond issuance remained robust while corporate credit demand has finally recovered.As leading indicators,Chinese stocks,credit growth and housing market in higher-tier cities all started to rebound from 4Q24,pointing

3、to a probable recovery of the China economy in 2025.Amid the pledge to further support domestic economy and offset Trump 2.0 shock,China would maintain accommodative monetary policy with possible RRR cuts by 50bps and LPR cuts by 20-30bps in 2025.Outstanding social financing and loans may pick up 8.

4、2%and 7.7%at end-2025 after rising 8%and 7.6%at end-2024.Social financing flow continued to improve.The growth of outstanding social financing(SF)remained flat at 8%YoY(all in YoY terms unless otherwise specified)in Jan,while the SF flow rose 9%to RMB7trn after rising 47.5%to RMB2.9trn in Dec,beatin

5、g market expectation at RMB6.6trn.Government bond issuance continued to accelerate,rising 135.5%to RMB693bn in Jan,as MOF has allocated the 2025 LG debt quota in advance.New RMB loans to the real sector increased YoY for the first time in 15 months,rising 7.8%to RMB5.2trn in Jan compared to RMB840.2

6、bn in Dec,while corporate bond issuance also expanded by 3.1%to RMB445.4bn.The M1 supply,once mainly reflecting corporate business vitality,now better captures overall liquidity of money under the new calibre,which moderated to 0.4%from 1.2%.M2 also edged down to 7%in Jan from 7.3%dragged by the dec