1、M IdeaUS Technology|North AmericaGlobal Cloud Capex Now Tracking to+56%Y/Y in 2025,With Upside to 30%+Growth in 2026Following 2Q earnings,2025 Global Cloud Capex is now tracking to$445B and 56%Y/Y growth,12 pts higher than 2 weeks ago.We also introduce preliminary 2026 Consensus Cloud Capex growth o

2、f 16%Y/Y($518B),but see a clear upward bias with MSe aggregate 2026 Global Cloud Capex at+31%Y/Y.Morgan Stanley&Co.LLCErik W WoodringEquity Analyst Erik.W +1 212 296-8083 Brian Nowak,CFAEquity Analyst Brian.N +1 212 761-3365 Keith Weiss,CFAEquity Analyst Keith.W +1 212 761-4149 Joseph MooreEquity An

3、alyst Joseph.M +1 212 761-7516 Meta A MarshallEquity Analyst Meta.M +1 212 761-0430 Dylan LiuResearch Associate Dylan.L +1 212 761-4519 IT HardwareNorth AmericaIndustry ViewIn-Line Amazon,Meta,and Alphabet are covered by Brian Nowak.Microsoft,Oracle,and CoreWeave are covered by Keith Weiss.Cloud cap

4、ex now tracking to+56%Y/Y,or$445B of spend,in 2025(Exhibit 1 and Exhibit 2).Following last weeks megacap earnings reports,2025 cash capex for the 11 largest global hyperscalers is now tracking to$445B,or 56%Y/Y growth,12 points,or$35B,higher than entering 2Q earnings season.Positive revisions to Mic

5、rosoft,Amazon,and Alphabet capex account for 90%+of the positive revision this earnings season,while upward revisions at CoreWeave,Apple,and Meta Platforms account for the remainder.At this point,cloud capex is tracking to 18.4%of revenue in 2025,up 5 points Y/Y and a new all-time record(Exhibit 3),

6、with Amazon(+$34.3B),Alphabet(+$32.2B),Meta(+$31.5B),and Microsoft(+$25.3B)accounting for 77%of the Y/Y growth in 2025 capex.That said,wed highlight that MSe is forecasting 59%Y/Y cloud capex growth in 2025,implying still modest upward pressure on consensus 2025 Cloud capex.Morgan Stanley does and s