1、ab4 August 2025Global ResearchPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESChina RobotaxiAPAC Focus:At the dawn of mass deploymentSci-fi-like robotaxi is already operating in some limited urban areas in China.As technology matures,cost declines,regulation liberalizes,and fleet size expands,its at the dawn of openin

2、g a US$394bn market of robotaxi services and freeing 5mn taxi mobility chauffeurs from an aging working force.In H225E,we expect robotaxi cost to drop below US$50k/unit and leading robotaxi operators to bypass 1,000-unit fleet size,a milestone of realizing this L4 technology.While there is no quanti

3、fiable consensus data available for the robotaxi market size,we believe many investors remain skeptical about robotaxi companies plans to reach a 1,000 unit fleet size by H225.Our analysis and on-the-ground test rides,however,give us more conviction.We initiate coverage of Pony AI with a Buy rating

4、and a US$20.00 price target and WeRide with a Buy rating and a price target of US$12.00.A potential US$394bn market size(ex the US)Chinese robotaxi startups generate robotaxi related revenue in two ways:selling robotaxies upfront,or operating robotaxi fleets to generate passenger fares.From the curr

5、ent negligible level,we forecast a robotaxi market size of US$8bn assuming partial deployment in tier-1 cities in China,US$183bn if robotaxis achieve national deployment in China,and US$394bn if we factor in foreign markets excluding the US(interactive model).While it is hard to specify an exact tim

6、eframe,we assume the 2030s is likely in view of technological maturity,plus regulatory and social acceptance.Leveraging data of New York City,UBS Evidence Lab simulated a fleet of 4,500 robotaxies covering 60 sq.km of Manhattan.With a core area of over 3,000 sq.km in four of Chinas tier-1 cities,we