1、 Watchlist the stock on Insights Direct to receive prompt updates ed-JS/sa-CS/AH Tourism:Catalysts matter Global tourism to surpass 2019 levels by c.10%in 2025,with rising experiential travel demand and normalised luxury consumption at 40%of total luxury sales to fuel brand performance HK/Macau tour

2、ism booming,but strong HKD caps spending.We expect HK retail sales to grow 0-2%y/y in 2025,while Mainland China retail could expand by 3%-4.5%this year especially given upcoming stimulus support Our top picks are Samsonite for global tourism growth and potential US listing,plus Sands China and Galax

3、y,for new luxury hotels targeting the lucrative mass gaming G Global tourismlobal tourism poised for full recoverypoised for full recovery.International tourist arrivals projected to grow c.12%y/y in 2025 to 1.6bn+tourists,finally exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 level.The greatest potential improvement

4、could come from Asia Pacific,which reached 85%of its 2019 level last year versus Americas 97%and Europes 101%.International tourist receipts could also grow at a low-teens rate in 2025,supported by higher spending on premium experiences.Specifically,tourists luxury consumption is normalising towards

5、 40%of global personal luxury sales,supporting the luxury industry.Despite only one-third of global luxury brands achieving growth in 2024(2023:65%),the market share of top customers continues to rise,up 10ppts since 2021 to reach 45%+in 2024.A mixed outlook for Greater China.A mixed outlook for Gre

6、ater China.While visitor arrivals are steadily recovering,a strong HKD could limit the rebound in HK tourist receipts(3Q24:-5.3%y/y)and also driving spending outflows.As such,retail sales in Mainland China could grow at a steady 3-4.5%this year aided by more stimulus policies,and HK could see modest