1、The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to ActJuly 2025IntroductionExecutive summaryEmerging truck industry trendsKey uncertainties driving the futurePotential scenarios resulting from the trendsScenario impact on the truck value chainFinancial consequences and no-regret mo

2、vesContacts0304051016202434Historically,heavy commercial vehicle(HCV)OEMs have operated in a comparatively stable and profitable market environment.Their success has largely stemmed from a business model anchored in long-term B2B relationships,proven diesel technologies,and a strong focus on reliabi

3、lity,uptime,and performance.Innovation has typically followed a pragmatic,evolutionary path,guided by customer priorities primarily total cost of ownership(TCO)and operational durability.In many ways,HCV OEMs have benefited from slow-changing customer preferences,conservative investment cycles,and p

4、roven product portfolios across regions.These factors have enabled them to maintain healthy margins,streamline operations,and focus on incremental improvement rather than disruptive change.However,this once-steady model is now under mounting pressure,driven by a convergence of transformational trend

5、s and growing strategic ambiguity.The transition toward zero-emission transport,regulatory tightening around CO emissions and pollutants,and increasing digitalization are reshaping both product requirements and value creation models.At the same time,the traditional vehicle ownership model is being c

6、hallenged by the rise of service-based models,with fleet customers seeking flexibility,uptime guarantees,and integrated digital solutions.Further adding to the complexity are geopolitical uncertainties,supply chain disruptions,and volatile input costs,all of which introduce new operational risks and