1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,Singapore Branch View HSBC Global Investment Research

2、at:https:/ The 20theditionof the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewHesitant bulls of summer Credit cost guidance was revised slightly upwards,but overall asset quality stress still looks manageable Loan growth was decent at 4%ytd;NIM was stable in the quarter with liquidity possibly improving in 2H25

3、Maintain our Buy rating on the stock but slightly reduce our estimates and TP to IDR10,100(from IDR10,300)Resilient despite asset quality uptick BBCA continues to run a resilient franchise,relatively immune to liquidity,credit quality or corporate governance risks.2Q25 ROE was stable at 24%(1Q25:23%

4、;excluding subsidiary dividend)with stable NIM,decent loan growth given the circumstances,but saw an uptick in asset quality stress.In all,we still like the stock but slightly adjust down our numbers.Asset quality:Management revised their 2025 guidance for credit costs from c30bp to c50bp,but we had

5、 earlier anticipated asset quality stress and are already at c50bp,so we leave our forecast unchanged.2Q25 NPL ratio rose to 2.2%(1Q25:2.0%),driven by a broad increase across consumer(mortgage,auto),SMEs,and commercial.2Q25 SM ratio also rose to 2.2%(1Q25:2.1%).Debtors were mostly underwritten pre-C

6、OVID.By sector,borrowers were from retail distribution,textile,property,building materials and consumer goods.Overall,we think asset quality stress looks manageable,with stage 3 cover at 64%while many of these loans have collateral(such as mortgage LTV at c45-50%).Stage 2 cover stood at 41%and stage