1、 Commercial in Confidence Quarterly Global Economic Outlook Q3 2025 Balancing Act:The Global Economys Tightrope Walk into H2 2025 “The global economy is navigating a complex and increasingly fragmented landscape.After a resilient but uneven recovery in the post-pandemic years,global growth has decel

2、erated markedly.This reflects a confluence of tightening credit conditions,persistently elevated inflation in key regions,and a new trade order,all of which are reshaping global supply chains and investor confidence.Looking ahead,downside risks dominate our forecasts and country risk ratings.These i

3、nclude the possibility of further trade fragmentation,a sharp repricing in asset markets(should inflation reaccelerate),growing fiscal strains,and divergent monetary policies.The global economy walks a tightrope.It is resilient now but increasingly vulnerable to external shocks and policy missteps.”

4、Dr.Arun Singh,Global Chief Economist,Dun&Bradstreet.Regional growth trends:balancing resilience and slowdown Sources:Haver Analytics,Dun&Bradstreet.3.83.03.71.62.72.72.41.71.11.73.63.42.63.02.41.51.91.31.21.33.83.62.93.42.61.71.90.51.51.8Real GDP Growth(%)202420252026 Commercial in Confidence Global

5、 Overview The U.S.s ongoing signaling that there will be a significant ramp up of tariffs continues to trigger market volatility and increase business uncertainty.Simultaneously,Washington is engaging in bilateral trade negotiations and temporary framework deals toward formal agreements.On July 7,th

6、e U.S.extended its previously announced July 9 deadline for negotiating trade deals and issued guidance on new higher tariff rates for countries with which it is unable to come to an agreement by the new deadline of August 1.Most newly announced tariffs set to come into effect after the new deadline