1、 Commercial in Confidence Quarterly Global Economic Outlook Q1 2025 Threats of trade war stoke uncertainty,denting business optimism Commentary:“As 2025 begins,it is clear the wide-ranging consequences of last years elections will continue for some time.In Europe,political fragmentation puts at risk

2、 the continents collective response to a rapidly changing external landscape,while uncertainty around the shape of future U.S.policies has put many policymakers and businesses on hold.Our latest Dun&Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Insights report reflects a sense of collective uncertainty,follow

3、ing a decline in optimism for Q1 2025 across nearly all economies and indexes.”Dr.Arun Singh,Global Chief Economist,Dun&Bradstreet.Global Overview Two narratives dominated macroeconomics and country risk in 2024:inflation and elections.Both are likely to continue to shape the global economy in 2025,

4、though in different ways than in 2024.Disinflation is likely to continue,though with variation across economies,and has recently accelerated in the Eurozone and the U.S.Central banks continue to signal a path to looser monetary policy in 2025,though in Q4 2024,markets scaled back expectations about

5、the pace of rate cuts following increased expectations that the incoming U.S.administration will introduce policies such as tariffs,tax cuts,and immigration controls that may cause inflation to reaccelerate.The implications of U.S.government policies may reverberate across the world,though much depe

6、nds on the extent and sequencing of policy changes.Largest goods exporters to the U.S.have been singled out for priority tariff treatment Sources:U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis,Dun&Bradstreet.Notes:Data are for Q3 2024(seasonally adjusted)and show goods exports per country as%of total goods exports