1、 Commercial in Confidence Quarterly Global Economic Outlook Q2 2025 Navigation of global economic uncertainty“Headwinds are blowing the global economy into increasingly turbulent waters and toward a prolonged period of uncertainty marked by slowing growth and heightened volatility.The recent impleme

2、ntation of sweeping U.S.tariffs triggered a dramatic sell-off across global equity markets though a 90-day stay of execution given on the higher rates that had been announced for many markets caused stocks to rally.These policy-induced shocks have significantly impacted global trade flows,corporate

3、confidence,and market stability.Our latest Dun&Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Insights report reflects this sense of collective uncertainty,showing a further decline in optimism.Businesses tell us that they continue to grapple with trade-related policy uncertainty and its broader implications,p

4、articularly in sectors with large export markets.”Dr.Arun Singh,Global Chief Economist,Dun&Bradstreet.Global Overview The global economy is navigating a period of exceptional uncertainty.Policy shifts,particularly those reshaping trade,have alarmed financial markets and bruised business sentiment.Th

5、e U.S.s reciprocal tariffs,which represent additional costs for businesses from almost all countries with which the U.S.trades,charge trade partners an import duty at a discounted rate of approximately half the rate that the trade partner currently imposes on the U.S.According to U.S.President Donal

6、d Trump,reciprocal tariffs,ranging from 10%to 50%,are meant to address trade barriers limiting U.S.exports.The effective tariff rate includes other tariffs imposed at an earlier date and cumulatively may now be higher than duties charged on U.S.imports.It is unclear whether the reciprocal tariffs re