星展银行:百度集团(9888.HK)-港股公司研究:AI转型期核心广告业务仍承压-250718(12页).pdf

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星展银行:百度集团(9888.HK)-港股公司研究:AI转型期核心广告业务仍承压-250718(12页).pdf

1、 Watchlist the stock on Insights Direct to receive prompt updates ed-JS/sa-CS/JY H HK K:HOLDHOLD Last Traded Price(Last Traded Price(17 Jul 202517 Jul 2025):HKD85.60(HSIHSI :24,499)Price Target Price Target 1212-mth:mth:HKD84.00(1.9%downside)(Prev HKD85.00)USUS:HOLDHOLD Last Traded Price(Last Traded

2、 Price(17 Jul 202517 Jul 2025):USD87.51(NASDAQNASDAQ :20,886)Price Target 12Price Target 12-mth:mth:USD85.00(2.9%downside)(Prev USD86.00)AnalystAnalyst Andy Yu+852 3668 4194 Sachin MITTAL+65 66823699 Raphael Tse+852 6629 1628 Edmond Fok+852 36681253 View our full data-driven analysis and more at DBS

3、 Insights Direct Whats New 2Q25 adj.earnings2Q25 adj.earnings expected expected to decline 41%y/y to RMB4.4bn,to decline 41%y/y to RMB4.4bn,14%14%belowbelow consensusconsensus Marketing revenue for Marketing revenue for 2Q/2Q/3Q25F 3Q25F is is projected to fallprojected to fall by 16by 16%/18%/18%,d

4、rivendriven byby fasterfaster-thanthan-expected expected upgrade to upgrade to AI search AI search AI monetisation in 4Q25 will help AI monetisation in 4Q25 will help to narrow the decline in to narrow the decline in marketing revenue marketing revenue Cut FY25/26/27F earnings by 13%/2%/1%;Cut FY25/

5、26/27F earnings by 13%/2%/1%;Maintain HOLD as Maintain HOLD as nearnear-term earnings remain under pressure from the AI search term earnings remain under pressure from the AI search upgradeupgrade,new TPs of HKD84/USD85,new TPs of HKD84/USD85 Price Relative Forecasts and Valuation(H Shares)FY Dec(RM

6、Bm)2024A 2025F 2026F 2027F Turnover 133,125 129,397 134,620 142,368 EBITDA 30,508 21,872 25,273 26,146 Pre-tax Profit 28,622 19,672 23,073 23,946 Net Profit 23,759 15,172 18,073 18,446 Adj.Net Pft 27,002 19,900 23,301 24,174 Adj.Net Pft Gth(%)(6.1)(26.3)17.1 3.7 EPS(RMB)8.52 5.44 6.48 6.61 EPS(HKD)9

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