1、 July 2025 Atradius LAC Economic Outlook Growing resilience Growing resilience tested by US policytested by US policy shiftsshifts ATRADIUS LAC ECONOMIC OUTLOOK-JULY 2025 i Table of Contents Summary ii Growing resilience tested by US policy shifts 1 Tariffs,trade and turbulence 2 South America:subdu

2、ed momentum shaped by Argentina and Brazil 4 Argentina:bouncing back,yet fragile 4 Brazil:limited US ties but still losing steam 5 Chile:steady growth,copper tariffs limited impact 6 Colombia:accelerating but modest GDP growth 6 Peru:slowing growth,minimal impact from copper tariffs 7 Mexico facing

3、trade war-induced recession 8 Central America:Moderate outlook,manageable US policy impact 9 Costa Rica:US policy shifts undermine trade and investment outlook 9 Caribbean stands out in terms of both growth and vulnerability 10 Dominican Republics relative diversification mitigates external risks 11

4、 Jamaicas economic recovery weighed down by US slowdown 12 ATRADIUS LAC ECONOMIC OUTLOOK-JULY 2025 ii Summary Subdued growth outlook shaped by largest economies We project economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC)to rise from 1.7%in 2024 to 2.1%in 2025,then ease to 1.8%in 2026,keeping

5、it the slowest-growing emerging market region.Growth is shaped by divergent dynamics in the regions three largest economies:Argentina(rebounding from recession),Brazil(dragged by high interest rates and political uncertainty)and Mexico(facing investor concerns over judicial quality and fallout from

6、US policy changes under President Trump).US policy changes are creating significant external pressure for region LAC is highly exposed to US policy changes due to its geographic proximity and economic integration.Mexico,Central America and the Caribbean are most exposed,given their strong ties to th