1、EQUITY:HEALTH CARE&PHARMACEUTICALSIndia PharmaceuticalsGlobal Markets Research15 July 2025Semaglutide generics A meaningful opportunity in India and other markets as volumes expand on improved supplies and lower priceGLP-1RA(receptor agonist)drugs have made a significant impact in the treatment of m

2、etabolic disorders with a better clinical efficacy.The segment recorded global revenue in excess of USD50bn in 2024 and is estimated to get close to USD100bn over the next two years(Bloomberg consensus).The sales are currently concentrated in the developed markets of the US and Europe.Most of the ot

3、her markets are not well serviced at the moment.This is set to change from 2026 with Semaglutide one of the successful GLP-1RAs losing patent protection in 80+countries,in our view.An improvement in product supplies,lower prices and high disease burden will likely drive significant volumes with the

4、potential to have a meaningful impact on the anti-diabetes and metabolic disorder market in India,as well as other markets.In the note,we attempt to layout the opportunity for generic Semaglutide over the next five years.We leveraged trends in the US and the disease burden across countries to make a

5、n assessment of the opportunity.We expect low-cost Semaglutide generics volumes to dominate the market in the near-to-medium term,given that other large GLP-1RAs will likely remain under patent for almost a decade.Impact on existing class of diabetes drugs as GLP-1RA gains traction:Over the past fiv

6、e years,prescription volumes of older generation drugs have declined.GLP-1RA and SGLT-2 gained share over the period.We expect a similar trend in India and other markets,with most negative impact on DPP-IV inhibitors.Most players in India have a large contribution of DPP-IV in their portfolio.Penetr