关税、缩减和转型：2025 年石油市场驱动因素.pdf

1、Tariffs,tapering&transitions:2025 oil market drivers1A RG US O IL A ND FUT UR E FUE LS FO RUM 20 2 5David FyfeChief Economist ArgusSpeakerGlobal trade buffeted by conflict&supply chain disruptionsGlobal trade buffeted by conflict&supply chain disruptions2Pandemic,conflict&drought stretched global su

2、pply chains during 2020-2024.Early-2024 oil freight rates(&bunker demand)spiked,then subsided,but spiked again after Biden Russia sanctions.Peace in Middle East/Ukraine could ease freight volatility,but tariff policy could worsen it.But system has adapted&inflationary impact limited(so far)But syste

3、m has adapted&inflationary impact limited(so far)3Consumer price inflation in the Atlantic Basin has eased,while China is battling deflation.Atlantic Basin inflation remains“sticky”&US Fed.cautiousAtlantic Basin inflation remains“sticky”&US Fed.cautious4Given potential macro&interest rate divergence

4、,USD likely to remain strong in the short-term.Potential headwind for emerging market demand.Despite multiple risks,economic“soft landing”as base caseDespite multiple risks,economic“soft landing”as base case5The Asia-Pacific region will continue to drive economic&commodity demand growth.Base Case hi

5、nges on two critical assumptions:No deflationary spiral in ChinaTrump policy agenda less radical than outlined on campaign trailUS domestic energy policyUS domestic energy policy-“shred IRA&drill,baby,drill”“shred IRA&drill,baby,drill”6Republican states&districts attract heavy IRA clean energy inves

6、tmentNorth America LNG export capacity(EIA)7US effective import tariff rateTariffs raise government revenue but also heap costs onto the consumer.Earlier-than-expected tariffs to drag on 25/26 GDP growth,with tax cut offsets thereafter.Inflation,rate hikes&resurgent USD not part of Trumps plan,but p