美银:韩国经济研究:韩国央行及政策展望:货币宽松或紧随财政刺激启动 - 250710(英文版)(10页).pdf

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美银:韩国经济研究:韩国央行及政策展望:货币宽松或紧随财政刺激启动 - 250710(英文版)(10页).pdf

1、 BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making the

2、ir investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 10.12849503 Korea Viewpoint BoK and policy outlook:monetary easing set to follow fiscal stimulus July BoK review:on hold over housing market concerns The BoK held its policy rate unchanged at 2.5%on 10 July,after the 25bp cut during

3、the May meeting.The decision was unanimous and in line with the market consensus,while four members(out of six,excluding Governor)were open to rate cut over the next three months.According to the monetary decision,the BoK acknowledged the weak economic growth and the high uncertainty related to trad

4、e negotiations.However,the significant acceleration in housing prices in Seoul and surrounding regions had triggered additional concerns,and hence resulted in a hold decision during the July meeting.Fiscal stimulus amid formation of new Cabinet While the BoK stayed put,it also recognized the fiscal

5、stimulus package announced earlier would help stimulate growth from 3Q.Last week,a KRW31.8tn-worth second supplementary budget was passed in the National Assembly,with KRW13.9tn diverted to consumption vouchers to all citizens,starting from 21 July.This is equivalent to 1.1%of private consumption la

6、st year,or KRW150-500k per person depending on the respective income bracket.We believe such stimulus would help boost real private consumption growth back to the 2.0%handle in 4Q25 from only 0.5%in 1Q25.The BoK also expects a 0.1ppt boost from this additional fiscal measure.Separately,it is also wo

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