1、Equity ResearchIndustry Update February 21,2025ConsumerBrewing Headwinds in Consumer from Shifting Immigration Policy;Deep Dive Highlights Most Exposed Consumer StocksOur CallImmigration policy shifts may create headwinds within consumer due to:1)weaker population growth,2)deportation fear disruptio

2、n,3)cuts to fiscal support and 4)tighter labor supply.At the margin,this probably matters.We explore the impacts.Immigration Policy Changes Could Have Broad Implications:Border crossings have reportedly dropped,deportations seem to have ramped,the cost of supporting immigrants has come under scrutin

3、y,and those with questionable immigration status appear to be refraining from leaving their homes.Undocumented immigrants represent 4%of the U.S.population and Hispanics,20%;aggressive policy change seems likely to have some negative impact on exposed subsectors and companies within consumer.Increme

4、ntal Demand Headwinds Brewing:U.S.population growth of 1%in 24 was driven mostly by immigration.Its not unreasonable to believe a tighter border and deportations could suppress growth by 50-100bps in 25,base case.Cuts to govt financial support for undocumented immigrants also could be meaningful.Rep

5、orts of undocumented immigrants refraining from participation in work/public places is another consideration.At the margin,we see a potential headwind to growth across consumer.Ripple Effects in Labor and Supply Could Yield Inflation:We see knock-on effects across the macro backdrop that impact cons

6、umer.Labor supply could see pressure,with increased competition for low-end workers(we est.undocumented immigrants represent 20%of the bottom quartile workforce).Operational challenges could be acute in select areas,causing some supply disruption.Increased wage pressure at the low end seems possible