1、Allianz Research8 July 2025The market alone wont fix it:the dilemma of climate-neutral real estate2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 12-21Economic consequences of a carbon-heavy real estate sectorPage 22-27 Investment needs for a net-zero building stockPage 5-11 Energy and emiss

2、ions in Europes current building stockPage 28 Accelerating the decarbonization of Europes building stock:Policy pathways and priorities8 July 2025 The residential real estate sector is a major yet often underestimated contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Europe.Decarbonizing housing is crucial

3、 for achieving carbon neutrality but presents complex challenges due to the regions outdated building stock,high renovation costs and fragmented ownership structures.In major European economies(Germany,France,Italy,Spain and the Netherlands),direct emissions from homes account from 7%(Spain)to 14%(G

4、ermany)of national totals,on par with or even exceeding industrial emissions.When indirect emissions are included,this share can double,underscoring the sectors systemic climate impact.Short-term pain,long-term gain:Under a net-zero scenario,house prices could be 10bps(France)to 50bps(Germany)higher

5、.In a net-zero scenario,by 2030,the effective carbon tax in the real estate sector is expected to be 80%higher on average relative to the likely scenario(mid-way between the two NGFS scenarios Below 2C and NDCs),as still-high emissions contend with elevated carbon prices.However,as decarbonization e

6、fforts,such as retrofitting,fuel switching and efficiency improvements,take effect,real estate emissions will fall and the effective carbon tax decline.By 2040,the sector would become more cost-efficient under the net-zero path than in a likely scenario,reducing exposure to future carbon costs.This