1、1Q17 Societe Generale(“SG”)does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that SG may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in maki

2、ng their investment decision.PLEASE SEE APPENDIX AT THE END OF THIS REPORT FOR THE ANALYST(S)CERTIFICATION(S),IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US RESEARCH ANALYSTS.ALTERNATIVELY,VISIT OUR GLOBAL RESEARCH DISCLOSURE WEBSITE SILVER ECONOMY A beacon of growth in challenging t

3、imes Synopsis of the SRI report published on 27 February 2017 Daniel Fermon Head of Cross Asset Thematics Research Phone:+33 1 42 13 58 81 Yannick Ouaknine ESG Analyst Y Phone:+33 1 58 98 23 50 A WEAK ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Debt,Growth,Protectionism and Ageing population 3 23/03/2017 HOW TO MANAGE RIS

4、K IN A WORLD OF WEAK ECONOMIC GROWTH Source:SG Cross Asset Research/Economics Real GDP growth:euro area&US(%yoy)-10-5051015050607080910111213141516BrazilChinaIndiaRussiaSource:SG Cross Asset Research/Thematics,IMF.2016 data estimated(IMF)Real GDP growth:major EM economies (%annual)WEAK ECONOMIC GROW

5、TH 4 23/03/2017 WEAK ECONOMIC GROWTH DEBT Source:SG Cross Asset Research/Thematics,Bank For International Settlements Private debt (%GDP)Public debt (%GDP)?0 50 100 150 200 250 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Japan US China Euro area 0 50 100 150 200 250 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20

6、10 2015 Japan US China Euro area 5 23/03/2017 CHANGE IN TRADE TRENDS SINCE 2008 Global trade trends(volumes)305070901101301501992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016Jan.92-Jan.02Jan.02-Feb.08Feb.08-Nov.15Trade growthtrend before 2002Accelerationof trade growth since China joined WTOTrade