1、MARCH 21,2025Real EstateLorne Kalmar,CPA,CA (416)607-3028 Zemin Liu,CFA,Associate (416)607-4808 Aging gracefully2025 seniors housing outlookThe Desjardins TakeawayCushman&Wakefield published its 2025 Canadian Seniors Housing Industry Overview.In 2025,national occupancy is forecast to surpass pre-pan

2、demic highs and reach 95%in 2026 as the babyboomer generation enters retirement home age(80+).Supply growth is expected to remain relativelymuted through at least 2030 owing to limited construction starts and the impact of obsolescence.This should translate into mid-to high-single-digit top-line gro

3、wth on a medium-to long-term basis.Cushman&Wakefield also expects demand for retirement home assets to remain robust,which shouldbenefit valuations.Overall,this update is very supportive of our outlook for the seniors housingsector,which remains at the top of our sector pecking order.HighlightsDeman

4、d.The population aged 80+is expected to grow at a 4.7%CAGR over the next 10 years,drivenby the baby boomer generation.Given that the majority of suites owned by both CSH and SIA are eitherassisted living or independent supportive living,for which move-ins are generally needs-driven,thisgives us a hi

5、gh degree of confidence that the transition of the baby boomer cohort to the 80+agebracket will translate into increased demand for retirement suites.Supply.New supply remains tightly constrained.Construction starts in 2024 were below 1%for a secondconsecutive year as development yields do not penci

6、l out at current market rents.Furthermore,thesupply of suites is being impacted by the obsolescence of older inventory.For 2024,the deletion ratewas 1.2%.Limited new development,combined with the impact of obsolesce,is expected to result inan absolute contraction in supply in 2026/27.Cushman&Wakefie