1、July 2025Electric Power&Natural Gas PracticeHow might tariffs affect the energy transition?The possibility of tariffs brings uncertainty to the clean-energy industry.How much could higher tariffs matter?by Christian Therkelsen,Diego Hernandez Diaz,and Humayun Taiwith Ins UresThe clean-energy landsca

2、pe today looks bumpy,marked by broad uncertainties across a fast-changing space.Global decarbonization and European energy independence rely on the deployment of clean-energy technology.Yet geopolitical and technological developments are creating potential disruptions,shifting focus from a rapid ene

3、rgy transition to other priorities,including the race to lead in gen AI,increased defense budgets in European countries,and new trade alliances.Todays evolving tariff environment piles on top of the uncertainties and has the potential to significantly affect the global economy,energy and transportat

4、ion demand,commodity prices,and supply chains.To help executives think through the possible effects of higher tariffs,we considered three potential tariff scenarios and their likely impact on the supply chain across five clean-energy technologiessolar,onshore wind,offshore wind,battery storage,and e

5、lectric vehicles(EVs)and we projected the capital expenditure and energy capacity outlook to 2035.Our analysis considers the United States and the European Union1 and does not include any effects on energy demand that could occur from a slowdown in economic growth resulting from tariffs.It also does

6、 not incorporate policy changes other than tariffsincluding export controls or changes to subsidieswhether they result from ongoing tariff scenarios or not.We dont suggest any scenario is more or less likely than another.Our results are notable both for what may change and what likely wont.Moderate