美银:欧洲再保险行业2025Q2预览:价格疲软与自然灾害减少-250718(英文版)(31页).pdf

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美银:欧洲再保险行业2025Q2预览:价格疲软与自然灾害减少-250718(英文版)(31页).pdf

1、 Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to Other Important Disclosures for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securitie

2、s does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment d

3、ecision.Refer to important disclosures on page 26 to 31.Analyst Certification on page 25.Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 24.12852853 European Reinsurance 2Q Preview-price softening;lighter cats Estimate Change No change to recommendations into 2Q25 earnings We maintain our Munich Re(Underperform)

4、,Hannover Re(Neutral),Swiss Re(Neutral)and SCOR(Buy)recommendations.We update our estimates,mainly driven by favourable loss experience and market moves with limited impact on 2025E EPS.Our 2026E EPS falls fractionally-1%on slower top-line growth.Munich Res PO at 600 is unchanged(ADR PO changes from

5、$13.61 to$13.90 on f/x)as its 8.6%total potential return is lowest relative to peer sector average of 13%.Property cat leads price softening;specialty lines firmer For mid-year renewals we foresee the sharpest price softening in property cat lines,particularly in higher layers of more desirable risk

6、,where capital is abundant.Softening seen at January and April renewals is expected to continue with loss-free property rates falling by 10-15%,albeit off cumulative peaks.Casualty pricing is firmer,but in the US market this still lags outsized loss cost trends,warranting continued caution.Specialty

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