1、France|BanksEquity ResearchJuly 10,2025 JosephDickerson*|Equity Analyst44(0)20 7029 8309|TheoMassing*|Equity Associate+33 1 8665 6306|Eyes on French banks Q2-SocGens capitalreturn formulaQ2 should be the time for GLE to shine as regards capital strength andearnings sustainability.Thus,we model 1.25b

2、n of share buybacks and a 0.65interim DPS against earnings broadly in-line with consensus(we do not deviatematerially until 26/27).At BNP,we model a 2.53 interim DPS and do not seeQ2 as catalytic.For CASA,our Q2 earnings are 9%consensus,driven by CAItalia,large corporates&Amundi.GLE-top pick with a

3、Q2 catalyst-expect interim DPS/buyback announcement at Q2.SocitGnrale continues to be the preferred French banks play and one of our top picks in the sector.We see Q2 25 results as another catalyst for the shares.Specifically,we expect the banks capitalstrength and expected earnings sustainability t

4、o give management the platform to declare aninterim DPS of 0.65(40%of full year 25E DPS).We would expect the bulk of the remaining excessCET1 to a 13.0%threshold to be distributed in the form of a 1.25bn share buyback(this wouldtake pro forma Q2 25E CET1 to 13.2%,though anything over 500m would be w

5、elcome).On thelatter,our 8.0bn estimate of cumulative announced buybacks over 25/26/27 compares to theconsensus of 4.2bn which is a significant point given the shares trade on a 32%discount to 25ETBV/share.ROTE consensus-since our All aboard last November,we have highlighted the prospects forbetter

6、ROTE outcomes versus market expectations and company guidance.Thus,we expect 2025ROTE of 9.6%(90bps consensus);11.0%for 26E and 11.7%for 27E(both years 180bps consensus).Given improvement in cost/income is the key driver for higher ROTE(discussed in Thepath to around 12%ROTE by 2027),we look for an