1、Global Macro Trends July 202515.3InsightsMake Your Own LuckMid-Year Outlook for 2025 Contents 3 Introduction 7 Most Important Things to Know 14 KKR vs.the Consensus:Variant Perception 15 Key Themes and Asset Allocation 15 Security of Everything 16 The Loneliness Epidemic,Including Pet Care and Ferti

2、lity 17 Worker Retraining/Productivity 18 Public to Private Initiatives 19 Models Transitioning to Capital Light From Capital Heavy 20 Collateral-Based Cash Flows 20 Intra-Asia Connectivity 21 Picks And Pans 25 Global/Regional Economic Forecasts 27 U.S.32 Euro Area 34 China 38 Japan 40 Capital Marke

3、ts 40 S&P 500 43 U.S.Interest Rates 49 Euro Area Interest Rates 50 Oil 52 U.S.Dollar 54 Frequently Asked Questions 54 What could Europe do to improve its competitive positioning?58 What is your latest thinking on the retirement market for individual investors?61 How are you thinking about Relative V

4、alue in Credit?62 What is your outlook for expected returns?66 Key ConclusionsHenry H.McVeyHead of Global Macro&Asset Allocation,CIO of KKR Balance S David McNellis Aidan Corcoran Changchun Hua Kristopher Novell Paula Campbell Roberts Brian Leung Rebecca Ramsey Tony Buckley Richard Bullock Bola Okun

5、ade Rachel Li Thibaud Monmirel Yifan Zhao Ezra Max Miguel Montoya Asim Ali Patrycja Koszykowska Coco Qu Koontze Jang Allen Liu Wayne Shen Alexandre Caduc Special Acknowledgment:Ernesto Vargas and Adam SavageauInsights|Volume 15.3 3Make Your Own LuckMid-Year Outlook for 2025Without question,the first

6、 half of 2025 has been an eventful one.The introduction of DeepSeek in January,to tense trade negotiations in the spring,to stickier inflation,to a U.S.sovereign downgrade,to a U.S.airstrike in Iran in June,have all served as stark reminders that a new world order,including a notable transition from