1、EQUITY:MEMORYGlobal memoryGlobal Markets Research25 June 2025Upside potential remains solid into 2027F,thanks to AICommodity DRAM/NAND:strong 1H25F and weak 4Q25F shipment and ASP growth in 2Q25F likely higher than expected due to pull-in demand in anticipation of a tariff hike For 2Q25,we had penci

2、lled in 10-20%q-q growth in both DRAM and NAND shipments.However,we now believe that actual shipment growth could turn out to be higher than our previous expectation(company guidance DRAM:SEC and Hynix 10-12%q-q;NAND:SEC 15%q-q,Hynix 20%+q-q),due to pull-in demand from some customers in anticipation

3、 of a possible tariff hike after 9 July;there could also be some additional temporary orders in late June/early July if the likelihood of a tariff hike increases.Higher pull-ins in 2Q25 and early 3Q25 will likely result in relatively low sales volumes in 4Q25F.We expect commodity prices in 2Q25 to i

4、ncrease,on average,by 5-7%for DRAM(vs our previous forecast of 3-5%)and by 0-3%for NAND(vs our previous forecast of 3%).As prices in 1H25 are stronger than expected due to pull-in demand,prices might temporarily weaken around 4Q25 as shipments decline due to the impact of tariffs.CSP capex remains s

5、olid,while disruptions in Nvidia production have been resolved;Samsung/Hynix 2025E HBM shipment growth(y-y)are likely to be 40%/100%HBM shipments likely increased by 10-40%q-q in 2Q25F,depending on the vendor.We observe rapid growth in AI server shipments as CSP capex remains solid(Fig.5)and disrupt

6、ions in Nvidias(NVDA US,Not rated)AI server rack production have been resolved.Meanwhile,TSMC(2330 TT,Buy)is revising its CoWoS capacity plan downward to a more realistic level.Along with the downward CoWoS production forecast,HBM demand appears to be lower than expected,but the potential downside i