1、Europe Equity Research11 July 2025J P M O R G A NIberian BanksModel update ahead of 2Q25European BanksKian Abouhossein AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcSpecialist Sales contact details:Gigi Sparling-Specialist Sales-European Financials(44-20)7134-We update our Iberian Banks models reflecting C

2、HF mortgage provisions in Poland as per announcements from Santander and BCP,which were higher than expectations(see here and here).For Santander,we reduce our 2025E EPS forecasts by-1%,with limited changes in 2026/27E.For BCP,we reduce our 2025E EPS forecasts by-4%,with minimal changes in the outer

3、 years.Equity Ratings and Price TargetsMkt CapRatingPrice TargetCompanyTicker(mn)Price()CurPrevCurEnd DatePrevEnd DateSantanderSAN SM109,258.307.34Nn/c7.50 Dec-26n/cn/cCaixaBankCABK SM55,451.667.56Nn/c7.10 Dec-26n/cn/cBanco Comercial PortugusBCP PL10,126.380.67OWn/c0.65 Dec-26n/cn/cSource:Company da

4、ta,Bloomberg Finance L.P.,J.P.Morgan estimates.n/c=no change.All prices as of 10 Jul 25.See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures,including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors sh

5、ould be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.2Kian AbouhosseinAC(44-20)7134-Europe Equity Research11 July 2025J P M O R G A NInvestment Th

6、esis,Valuation and RisksSantander(Neutral;Price Target:7.50)Investment ThesisWe rate SAN Neutral with a Dec-26 PT of 7.50.We recognize that the valuation is supportive,trading at 7.3x P/E and 1.1x P/NAV for a 14.7%RoTE in 2027e(14.5%Adj.),with SANs geographical reach providing earnings diversificati