摩根大通:欧洲必需消费品行业报告:美国关税影响及二季度预览-250711(英文版)(35页).pdf

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摩根大通:欧洲必需消费品行业报告:美国关税影响及二季度预览-250711(英文版)(35页).pdf

1、Europe Equity Research11 July 2025J P M O R G A NEuropean Food Producers,Household&Personal Care Products,Beverages&TobaccoCeline Pannuti,CFA AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan Securities plcAnkur Gupta(91-22)6157-J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedEdward G Hockin AC(44-20)7742-J.P.Morgan Securities plcPhilip Sp

2、ain AC(44-20)3493-J.P.Morgan Securities plcKorede Adeniyi(44-20)3493-J.P.Morgan Securities plcPrem Sirisuttinunt(44-20)3493-J.P.Morgan Securities plcTanya Tekriwal(91-22)6157-J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedSpecialist Sales contact details:Olivia Petronilho-Specialist Sales-European Consumer(44-20)3

3、493-European Staples underperformed the market this week across all sub-sectors.The Trump Administration delayed US reciprocal tariffs until 01-August,but set new tariff rates for 14 countries effective by the new deadline while announcements remain pending on key countries,including the EU.In Stapl

4、es,the reporting season kicked off with Barry Callebauts Q3 volume miss at-9.5%which weighed on shares(-13%on the day).Chinese dairy company Feihe(covered by K Yin)issued a profit warning,anticipating its 1H25 sales to decline 8-10%yoy.Conagra(covered by K Goldman),cautioned on FY26,expecting COGS i

5、nflation of c.7%,comprising of c.4%core inflation and c.3%unmitigated tariff impact.In Beverages,Spirits continued to see gains on the US tariff delay/exemption and we previewed results for Diageo,Campari and Remy Cointreau-expecting a mixed Q2 CY25 on top-line with Diageo in LSD-decline(US shipment

6、 phasing reversal)but LSD+growth in Campari(Easter phasing)and Remy Cointreau(US Cognac restocking).While tariff announcements have proven to be less bad than initially feared,we remain cautious on the sector amid persistently soft underlying demand(as seen in US/Europe depletions)and risks of price

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